Science: What is relevant is reproducible results

"Aliens Cause Global Warming" from Michael Crichton:

Let's be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.

There is no such thing as consensus science. If it's consensus, it isn't science. If it's science, it isn't consensus. Period.

Songs from Tibet

"China Blocks Access to iTunes Store" (Wired):

China's authorities have blocked access to all eight million or so songs in the iTunes music store, apparently because one album -- Songs for Tibet -- doesn't sit well with them.

major endorsement for Obama

Another Major Endorsement for Obama, Little Green Footballs:

The Communist Party USA says that Barack Obama may not be the perfect Stalinist they’ve been hoping for, but he is a stepping stone to the new socialist utopia.

Has Wal-Mart Buried Mom and Pop?

Has Wal-Mart Buried Mom and Pop?, PDF from the Cato Institute:

Our research suggests that the popular belief that Wal-Mart has a significant negative effect on the size of the mom-and-pop business sector of the United States economy is statistically unfounded.

After examining a plethora of different measures of small business activity and growth, examining both time series and cross-section data, and employing different geographic levels of data and different econometric techniques, it can be firmly concluded that Wal-Mart has had no significant impact on the overall size and growth of U.S. small business activity.

There is no question that Wal-Mart does cause some mom-and-pop businesses to fail. However, those failures are entirely compensated for by the entry of other new small business elsewhere in the economy through the process of creative destruction.

Nerdy financial joke

Craigslist Meets WallStreet…Classic:

Okay, I’m tired of beating around the bush. I’m a beautiful (spectacularly beautiful) 25 year old girl. I’m articulate and classy. I’m not from New York . I’m looking to get married to a guy who makes at least half a million a year. I know how that sounds, but keep in mind that a million a year is middle class in New York City, so I don’t think I’m overreaching at all.

Are there any guys who make 500K or more on this board?

(continue reading...)

mistaking the consequences for the causes

"Tom Friedman doesn't understand why America is unpopular in the world" (Glenn Greenwald):

In light of that, just ponder the self-delusion required for Tom "Suck-On-This" Friedman and the political establishment he leads to express befuddlement -- confusion -- over our extreme unpopularity in the world over the last seven years. How would a rational person expect our country to be perceived when the face we present to the world is the face that appears on that grotesque You Tube clip .... ?

more rising oil prices, and ignorant polical reaction

"The Economist" de 3 de Julio - Politicians who try to make oil cheaper by restraining speculation will just make things worse

The accusers point to the link between the volume of transactions on the futures markets and the price of oil. Since 2004 the near tripling of trading in oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the world's biggest market for the stuff, has neatly coincided with a tripling in the price.

.... neither index funds nor other speculators ever buy any physical oil. Instead, they buy futures and options which they settle with a cash payment when they fall due. In essence, these are bets on which way the oil price will move. Since the real currency of such contracts is cash, rather than barrels of crude, there is no limit to the number of bets that can be made. And since no oil is ever held back from the market, these bets do not affect the price of oil any more than bets on a football match affect the result.

Despite their dismal reputation, the oil speculators provide a vital service. They help airlines and other big oil consumers to hedge against rising prices, and so to reduce risk—a massive boon amid the economic turmoil. By the same token, they provide oil producers with more predictable future revenues, and so allow them to expand more confidently and borrow more cheaply. That, in turn, should help to lower the price of oil in the long run. Any attempt to curtail speculation, by contrast, is likely to make life harder for firms and oil more expensive.

What onions teach us about oil prices

"What onions teach us about oil prices" (CNN Money):

Onions have no futures market, yet their recent price volatility makes the swings in oil and corn look tame.

And yet even with no traders to blame, the volatility in onion prices makes the swings in oil and corn look tame, reinforcing academics' belief that futures trading diminishes extreme price swings.

about oil prices

About professor Argandoña's argument,

Si el petróleo se estuviese encareciendo como consecuencia de movimientos especulativos, veríamos, probablemente, aumentos de inventarios que, por ahora, no están a la vista. Es verdad que los productores quizás están guardando esos inventarios "en el pozo", es decir, no expandiendo su producción tanto como podrían. Pero esto no puede calificarse de especulación financiera, sino que forma parte de la manera de hacer negocios de esos productores.

This interesting article — "I Got Your Oil Inventories Right Here":

The most popular explanation for the high oil prices is that world demand is rising while supply is stagnating. But suppose that Frankel is right, and that oil producers really are leaving oil in the ground because of the low interest rates. That would mean that some of the apparent stagnation in the supply of oil is just an illusion: oil producers could be keeping up with the rising demand, but the low interest rates are inducing them to keep more oil in the ground, thereby creating the appearance of stagnating oil supply.

green isn't gold

"Green Isn't Gold for MBAs" (Business Week)

A good environmental reputation doesn't make the grade when it comes to rating a company as a prospective employer, a new study finds.

leave everything on their hands

Expense Allowance Abuse by MEPs

proud to be an Irishman (2)

This was just before the referendum: "Ireland: know your place, you ungrateful wretch!":

How can the Irish be so ungrateful? That is the question being asked by EU officials (in private) and by EU supporters (in public) as the Irish go to the polls this Thursday to vote on whether to accept the Lisbon Treaty on the expansion of European Union institutions. The fact that the ‘No’ lobby seems to be gaining ground – in a country that has benefited enormously from EU subsidies! – has led to an orgy of bile-ridden attacks on truculent, thick and thankless Irish voters.

The message is clear: the Irish should know their place in the European set-up and slavishly bow and scrape before their paymasters in Brussels. Anything else would be ‘extraordinarily ungrateful’, according to one commentator (1). Welcome to the ‘democratic’ EU – where most countries are bypassing their electorates and simply ratifying the Lisbon Treaty, and where the one country that is holding a referendum – Ireland – has been subjected to the kind of financial, political and emotional blackmail that would make even Imelda Marcos squirm.

Lack of bank note paper threatens Zimbabwe economy

"It has come to this: Zimbabwe is about to run out of the paper to print money on."

proud to be an Irishman

In the name of all the Europeans who were denied the right to have a say about the European 'democracy', thank you Ireland.

In Defense of "Sweatshops"

In Defense of "Sweatshops'" (EconLib):

The good news for sweatshop workers today is that the world has better technology and more capital than ever before. Development in these countries can happen even faster than it did in the East Asian tigers. If activists in the United States do not undermine the process of development by eliminating these countries' ability to attract sweatshops, then third world countries that adopt market friendly institutions will grow rapidly and sweatshop pay and working conditions will improve even faster than they did in the United States or East Asia. Meanwhile, what the third world so badly needs is more "sweatshop jobs," not fewer.

high oil prices : regulation-imposed scarcity

"Union County approves zoning ordinance for Hyperion "

As midnight approached, they popped the champagne corks, celebrating a hard-fought victory that keeps alive the county's chances of landing the nation's first all-new oil refinery in 32 years.

Supporters argued that tapping into reserves from our neighbor to the north would reduce the nation's dependence on Mideast oil and add badly needed refining capacity in the U.S., where the last all-new refinery was built in 1976.

GW satire

Jobless GM Automakers Celebrate Saving The Planet (The People's Cube):

American automakers responded with great enthusiasm to yesterday's decision by General Motors to compost its gas-guzzling business model and close four pickup truck and SUV plants - a unilateral gesture of good will towards the environment that will result in 10,000 lost jobs.

How 'Sweatshops' Help the Poor

"How "Sweatshops" Help the Poor" (Mises Institute):

One of the oldest myths about capitalism is the notion that factories that offer the poor higher wages to lure them off the streets (and away from lives of begging, stealing, prostitution, or worse) or away fom back-breaking farm labor somehow impoverishes and exploits them. They are said to work in "sweatshops" for "subsistence wages."

That was the claim made by socialists and unionists in the early days of the industrial revolution, and it is still made today by the same category of malcontents – usually by people who have never themselves performed manual labor and experienced breaking a sweat while working. (I am not referring here to the red herring claim that most foreign "sweatshops" utilize some kind of slave labor. This is an outrageous propaganda ploy designed to portray defenders of free markets as being in favor of slavery).

Green armbands next?

"Every adult in Britain should be forced to carry 'carbon ration cards', say MPs" (Daily Mail):

Every adult should be forced to use a 'carbon ration card' when they pay for petrol, airline tickets or household energy, MPs say.

The idea of personal carbon trading is increasingly being promoted by environmentalists. In theory it could be used to cover all purchases - from petrol to food.

'What we are asking the Government to do is to seize the reins on this, leading the debate and coordinating research.'

Patrick Michaels, Cato senior fellow in environmental studies, comments:

Britain's parliamentary proposal to require all adults to carry a 'carbon ration card' would result in the absolute destruction of personal privacy with no detectable impact on global climate. The proposed card would track virtually all personal movements and purchases (including food), reporting them to the government. The cost of the loss of privacy is outweighed by absolutely no climatic benefit. The United Kingdom is a minor emitter of carbon dioxide, accounting for a tiny fraction compared to the emissions of China, now the world's largest source of carbon dioxide, where there is certainly no attempt to reduce personal use of energy.

Further, for such a program to be effective, the cost of energy would have to be so high that the British economy would grind to a halt. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide requires 60-80% reductions in emissions worldwide. Here in the United States, $4.00 per gallon gasoline is cutting use by a few percent. What price is required for an 80% reduction, and is this worth surrendering virtually all of one's privacy to the government?

Climate Change (3)

The Challenge:

Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School challenges Al Gore $20,000 that he will be able to make more accurate forecasts of annual mean temperatures than those that can be produced by climate models. Scott Armstrong’s forecasts will be based on the naive (no-change) model; that is, the forecasts would be the same as the most recent year prior to the forecasts. The money will be placed in a Charitable Trust to be established at a brokerage house. The charity designated by the winner will receive the total value in the fund when the official award is made at the annual International Symposium on Forecasting in 2018.

The current status of the Challenge:
- "Gore proposes new condition on climate forecasting challenge . . . Armstrong accepts and awaits a reply"

From "Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts" by Scott Armstrong:

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report.

The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are not useful in situations involving uncertainly and complexity. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder.

Another presentation by Scott Armstrong, with stronger evidence than the one from IESE:
- "Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts" (PDF)

The youtubes:
- Dr. Scott Armstrong on Climate Forecasting - Part I
- Dr. Scott Armstrong on Climate Forecasting - Part II
- Dr. Scott Armstrong on Climate Forecasting - Part III